Recently, I came across an interesting piece of FICTION concerning the theoretical possibility of whetherIsrael Dolphin Israel could deploy submarines to strike against Iran. It seemed to be a well thought out piece of techno-thriller literature that I put away as worth looking into later. But the more research I do on the subject the more I find that since Israel bought their first Dolphins (Type 212’s) from Germany, people have speculated about a “second strike” capability. Now that Israel is buying three more Dolphins, this time with advanced sonar, AIP systems and the unspoken but taken for granted capability to launch nuclear tipped cruise missiles the possibility seems closer to reality.

Source: Reuters, By Dan Williams Anticipating a showdown with Iran, Israel decides secretly to deploy a submarine off its arch-foe’s coast. But how? The quickest route from Israel’s Mediterranean coast is via the Suez Canal, which runs through Egypt and which the classified vessels shun. So the submarine is hidden in the belly of a commercial tanker, which delivers it to the Gulf.

Such is the plot of an Israeli thriller, “Undersea Diplomacy”. Does it hold water? Perhaps not. Then again, the author, Shlomo Erell, is no mere novelist. He’s an ex-admiral with experience in Israel’s most sensitive military planning.

“It’s pure fiction, but it’s informed fiction,” he said simply, when asked if his book reflects how the Israeli fleet of Dolphin-class submarines could be used against Iran, whose leadership has called for Israel to be “wiped off the map”, stoking international concern over Tehran’s nuclear programme.

Israel has three Dolphins, with two more on order from Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft, a German shipyard custom-building them at a steep discount as part of Berlin’s bid to shore up a Jewish state founded in the wake of the Nazi Holocaust.

The submarines are a subject of deepest secrecy given speculation that they carry nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. Many analysts believe the Dolphins are Israel’s “second strike” weapons, referring to the Cold War theory that a country can deter foes from launching nuclear attacks by maintaining the ability to retaliate, even after its own territory has been laid waste. A nuclear “platform” out at sea is the best guarantee.

Israeli navy sources say the Dolphins do not use the Suez — to avoid being inspected by Egyptian harbourmasters. That means that, to reach the Gulf, Israel would either have to resort to fantastical ruses like the one in “Undersea Diplomacy”, or send the submarines around Africa — a month-long trip at least.

“The whole point of a deterrent is that it’s never used,” Willett said. “In designing the Dolphins as a second-strike platform, I imagine the Israelis were thinking ‘it’s not ideal, but it’s the best we’ve got’.” Israel does not discuss its nuclear capabilities, under an “ambiguity” policy billed as warding off regional enemies while avoiding the kind of provocations that can trigger arms races.